*Oak Forest (7-5) at Centreville (11-2).......Oak Forest enters round three of the MPSA South AA playoffs as huge underdogs and I’m thinking that’s just where the Jackets like being. After a loser stays home season finale against district foe Silliman hardly a soul was talking about Oak Forest and their chances of qualifying for a wildcard spot. After all the Jackets finished 4th in the always brutal district 5AA race. Oak Forest went to Silliman and proceeded to put a 34-6 whipping on the Wildcats to solidify that wildcard spot. What was their reward for a 1st round opponent? Just traveling to face the District 5AA Champion Central Private Rebels who had defeated the Jackets 7-6 in week six in Central. Most football fans had this 1st round match up as a blowout (I picked CP to win 32-19) and gave OFA little chance of upsetting the red hot Rebels who had just come off a big blowout win at Bowling Green to clinch the district title. The team that showed up to play against CP wasn’t the same team that appeared back in week six. The Jackets, behind the solid running of senior running back Jonathon Burrell, put the Rebels on notice quickly that they were in a game. After three rushing touchdowns from Burrell (one was the winning score in overtime) and some timely passing from James Peterson the Jackets walked off the field with a 28-22 first round win that shocked most fans. And what did they get for advancing past the first round? A trip to Natchez to face the District 3AA Champion Trinity Saints who had won 11 of 12 this season and as with the Jacket’s first round game many didn’t give them a chance at TE (I picked TE to win 27-18). Oak Forest then took up right where they had left off the previous week and pounded the Saints 30-7 to shock us all again. Now Oak Forest gets to hit the road again as they make the ride to Centreville to face the defending AA State Champs. And once again many don’t give the Jackets a chance to beat the team that has been so dominant over the past 2/3’s of the season. They’ll be facing the most physical squad they’ve faced all season and with no glaring weaknesses a Centreville team that can end a contest by halftime. So what’s the point of Oak Forest even making the trip right? Thinking about the way the Jackets have surged over the past five or six weeks reminds me vividly of the 2006 season when a team started the first five games of the season at 2-3 and with calls of poor coaching and loss of confidence from fans seemed to spell doom on the team. That squad went on to finish the season in strong fashion and finished 2nd in District 6AA. The similarities don’t end there…….that 2006 squad won three straight road games in the playoffs before beating Kirk 24-21 to win a state championship. Who did they beat in those three rounds? Riverfield (4AA Champs), Bowling Green (5AA Champs), and Porter’s Chapel (4AA Runners Up). If you believe in signs well there’s your sign. If OFA manages to beat Centreville (5AA Runners Up) they could possibly play Kirk for the AA title. How ironic! Oh and by the way, just who was the team that accomplished the feat in 2006? The Copiah Colonels. One more “Where’s my sign” moment…..I picked Copiah to lose all three of those road games back in 2006. Copiah fans ragged me each week during their playoff run and after three road wins I picked the Colonels to beat Kirk in the title game. So if you’re a Jacket fan and you’re superstitious there’s hope! Now do I believe Oak Forest will contain running back Zach Sinclair and plug up those holes that the huge offensive line of Centreville’s makes every week? Can they do that and keep Tiger quarterback Kyle Brown from completing timely passes as he did last week against Bowling Green? We’ll see………..
Game notes:
*Points Scored: Centreville 31.1….Oak Forest 21.5 *Points Allowed: Centreville 9.38….Oak Forest 16.8 *Centreville has won 9 straight games. During that span the Tigers have averaged 35.1 points a game and yielded only 6.6 points a game. *Oak Forest has won 5 of their last 6 games. In those 5 wins they averaged 26.8 points a game and yielded only 9 points a game. *Oak Forest is 2-3 on the road this season. *Centreville is 7-1 at home this season. *Centreville beat Oak Forest in week nine 35-14 at CA. *Last season the Tigers averaged 32.7 points a game and yielded 14.4 points a game. *Centreville beat Marshall last season 36-21 to win the AA title. *Oak Forest lost to Trinity 35-12 in the 2nd round last season. *The Jackets have won three straight on the road. *Centreville’s two losses have been by a combined total of 9 points.
Who wins…………………
Easy pick right? I don’t think there are any easy picks in the playoffs. After a quick glance this game on paper seems to be a “no brainer” but lots of times trends can shed some light on just how games are played. Centreville has been on a major roll since the early part of the season but last week they uncharacteristically gave up lots of yards against Bowling Green. While the Tiger defense did give up lots of yards they made the plays necessary to keep the Buc offense out of the end-zone most of the game. Was that the beginning of a trend for CA’s defense or was BG’s offense just that good? Oak Forest has been chewing up decent yardage on the ground and if that carries over to Friday night we may see a barn burner. The X-factor could very well be the experience Centreville has in playoff games. A senior quarterback that has led his squad to six straight playoff wins can’t be overlooked. Kyle Brown continues to be the steady hand that guides the Tigers on both sides of the ball. It should be an electric atmosphere with OFA coach Jason Brabham and CA coach Bill Hurst battling it out for the right to play for the ring! I got Centreville over Oak Forest 27-20…………………
*Lee at Kirk pick tomorrow night..........
