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August 9, 2009

MPSA South AA 2009 Football Forecast

Southern Sports & Travel Football Forecast
By Darron Thomas

District 4AA
Football in District 4AA has taken a metamorphosis of sorts due to re-alignment. Of the five teams that comprised the district the past two seasons only two remain, Brookhaven and Columbia. Gone are Prentiss (single-A), Simpson (north AA) and Copiah (AAA). In are Bowling Green, Amite and Central Hinds. Unlike last preseason when three teams were discussed as possible contenders to win a district title, the 2009 preseason has the makings of a two team race that may not be decided until the final week of the regular season.

While Columbia, Amite and Central Hinds may not be favored to win the District 4AA title the prospect of improvement and rebuilding could be the main focus. The chances of the district title not being decided until the final week of the regular season is what football dreams are made of for fans. Bowling Green and Brookhaven are without question the best two teams in district 4AA and while many may study the schedules and assert that Brookhaven may have the advantage may I take you back to the past four seasons and the five meetings these two squads have had? Of the last five meetings Bowling Green has won three, all at Brookhaven (two times last season and in 2005). In 2007 Brookhaven won at Bowling Green 35-34 behind the duo of quarterback Daniel Lofton and running back Corey Dickerson. Due to re-alignment three of the last four regular season match-ups have been at Brookhaven and finally the past three games have been decided by a total of 5 points. Oh and did I mention that Bowling Green travels up I-55 to Brookhaven in week 11 to finish out the regular season?

It’s easy to get caught up in the numbers with regards to the solid rivalry that has built between Bowling Green and Brookhaven in both football and basketball over the past few years. But as most say….numbers don’t lie. Both head coaches, Brett Beard of Bowling Green and Herbert Davis of Brookhaven, enter their second season with 8-4 marks. Both squads have great talent at the quarterback position…… senior Cash Cooley of Bowling Green and junior Chandler Rogers of Brookhaven. Both lost their best running backs…..Bowling Green returns 6 on offense and 7 on defense, Brookhaven 5 on offense and 6 on defense. When do the similarities end? Bowling Green’s two biggest losses to graduation may have been WR/DB Blake McGehee and RB/DB Kasey Cooley while Brookhaven lost RB/LB Kolby Byrd and RB/DB Kyle Burt. So who has the advantage? I see Bowling Green’s defense, particularly their linebackers, as the biggest improvement on the Buccaneer team. Bowling Green will score their share of points but the key may rest with three players as to how successful the Bucs are in 2009. Linebackers Dean King, Daniel Mauthe and Drake Adams are quick to the ball and will be huge parts in improving the 20 points Bowling Green yielded each game in 2008. Brookhaven will have one of the best quarterback/receiver combinations in AA with Chandler Rogers and wide receiver Tripp Jolly, but for the Cougars to earn yet another district title senior Austin Barnett and junior Jennings Mills must fill the void at both running back and linebacker left by Kolby Byrd. Mark October 30th on your calendar!

There’s no intention of diminishing the hard work coaching staffs at Columbia, Amite and Central Hinds are putting in but the realization that these squads will be battling it out for the third slot in District 4AA is real. Columbia welcomed new head coach Bruce Merchant to the family and Amite brought in head coach Judd Johnston. Coach Merchant will look to take yet another step in the re-building of the Columbia football program. The Cougars program went from 0-11 in 2007 to 3-8 in 2008. That 3-8 mark last season could very well have been 5-6…… (two close losses to Oak Forest and Huntington). Columbia’s 2008 campaign also produced improvements on offense and defense. The Cougars averaged nearly a touchdown more a game than in 2007 and yielded six points less on the scoreboard. Continued progression offensively will rest on the arm of senior quarterback RJ Thomas and senior tight end Josh Price.

The hope in Liberty this season is that new head coach Judd Johnston will be able to instill patience in a rebuilding process that will take time to bare fruit. Johnston was an assistant coach at Bowling Green last season and could bring some much needed innovation to an offense that only mustered 9 points a game in 2008. The numbers the ASC offense produces won’t be the only numbers Coach Johnston will have to contend with. The Rebels only dressed 17 last season and the grind that takes place during a game with so many players going on both sides of the ball usually has a snowball effect heading into the last quarter of a game. Five of Amite’s opponents this season are squads they didn’t meet last season and there are some opportunities for solid improvement in 2009.

The Central Hinds Cougars make the move this season to District 4AA from District 5A. Central Hinds is no stranger to AA football. The Cougars finished 2nd in District 3AA in 2006 and advanced to the second round of the playoffs. The past two seasons in single-A Central Hinds qualified for the playoffs and were District 5A champs in 2007 but they appear to be a bit of an unknown with respects to competing in the upcoming season. Losing five seniors from last season’s 25 man roster and going 1-5 against AA teams may provide a clue.

*Projected Finish
1) Bowling Green
2) Brookhaven
3) Columbia
4) Central Hinds
5) Amite

District 5AA
The 2009 version of District 5AA has taken on considerable changes as has most others. The transaction from a six team district that was arguably the best overall the past few years to a district comprised of the defending two time state AA champion Centreville Tigers and four teams that may not know how they measure up until week one has past. Two squads that remained in District 5AA, Silliman and Central Private, could very well be the ones that challenge each other for a district runners-up slot and a playoff berth. New additions, Adams Christian and Wilkinson County, will attempt to gain momentum early on in the season before district play begins. Both squads could be sitting at 2-1 when they face off in week four in Natchez.

The Southern Sports & Travel top five poll will be out on August 16th. The task of assembling four of the top five is difficult to say the least. The best team in MPSA AA football will again be the Centreville Tigers. I had the opportunity to take the ride to Centreville this past Friday to watch the Tigers scrimmage Adams Christian. Two things that interested me the most were how effective would Centreville be in replacing quarterback Kyle Brown, who led the Tigers to two straight state titles, and five offensive linemen that either started or saw considerable playing time last season? First the quarterback position……Kyle Brown was a great leader on the field and captained the offense with solid efficiency. Cliff Hurst, who I was shocked to learn will only be a sophomore, has a big arm and an accurate arm at that. The offensive line…..they lost a ton, Cody Roberts, Justin Henry, Daniel Perkins, Eric Noland and Brandon Aldridge. What I expected to see and what I saw were two different things. Man this team has some big strong kids ready and willing to take over. Experienced seniors Tyler Glasscock and Ragan Reynolds return and will provide the younger linemen with direction and leadership in the trenches. Not that the offensive line at Centreville will need any motivation to help the Tigers win their third straight title but just knowing that they will be opening up holes in defenses for perhaps the best running back in the MPSA should be enough to motivate anyone. Zack Sinclair will be hitting gaps again this season for the defending state champions. It doesn’t matter that sometimes the gaps close quickly. Sinclair was born to run the football as he demonstrated in the state championship game last November against the Kirk Raiders. In the 28-10 Tiger win the junior exploded for 264 yards against a defense that proved to be one of the best all season in AA football. Centreville’s most difficult games on their schedule could be in week one and week two as they travel to Oak Forest and Parklane. If the Tigers can top anything they’ve accomplished the past two seasons it may be their overall record. Two consecutive 13-2 seasons could be bested in 2009.

The Central Private Rebels are the defending 5AA champions and over the past three seasons have been a team of consistency. Head coach Mike Longmire has compiled a 23-9 overall record at Central Private during that span which includes an 11-3 district record, the same as Centreville. Something I’ve learned since CP came back down to AA from AAA several years back is to never doubt them. Each year comes the question of being able to compete due to lack of depth and roster numbers. While the upcoming 2009 season will bring about those same issues, doubting whether the Rebels can compete may be a huge mistake. Last season’s squad had quality wins over Centreville, Oak Forest, Bowling Green and River Oaks but 14 starters are gone from 2008. But before I put the death-nail in the coffin for the upcoming Rebel season I must remind myself of past seasons when CP just kept on coming. Big holes need to be filled and depth may again be an issue but Central Private has enough size to open holes for senior running back Bobby Muse. Muse is a strong north-south runner and had an exceptional season in 2008 but the key to success may be in the hands of senior quarterback Jason Young. Young will be taking over for Jacob Fryoux who graduated this past spring. The effectiveness of Bobby Muse rests solely on the shoulders of Young who will need to show discipline in the pocket and not force long throws down field. Coach Longmire has his biggest challenge while at the helm at Central Private but as I stated earlier….don ‘t doubt CP.

It’s been some time since Silliman football has made a splash. The Wildcats will contend for a playoff birth this season……that’s right, the Silliman Wildcats will contend for a playoff birth this season. Head coach Joe Moock starts his 3rd year in Clinton and has the luxury of knowing he has 7 starters returning on both sides of the ball in 2009. That’s the good news, now the bad. The Wildcats could be sitting at 1-4 when their open date arrives in week six. Three of their first four games are against Centreville, Brookhaven and Bowling Green before Central Private visits in week five. That week five match-up could determine the entire season for the Wildcats as they enter a very agreeable second half schedule. It’s very possible Silliman could be a 7-4 or 6-5 playoff team depending on how they grow during the first half of a brutal schedule. They must play better at home (0-4 in 2008) and avoid the possibility of a confidence drain during the first half of the season. The Wildcats, while not blessed with tons of depth, should be much improved on the offensive line and have senior Cody Donze returning at fullback and linebacker. The biggest game of the season for Silliman will be September 18th when they host Central Private.

The Wilkinson County Rams move up from single-A in 2009 with hopes of surprising many. Jumping to AA football after a 3-8 season in single-A could make for a long season. I was in Woodville this past Friday to watch WCCA and Central Private scrimmage and I was interested in catching a look at the Rams running back Tip McKenzie. McKenzie, only a sophomore, has all the makings of a great running back. Surprisingly WCCA had good size but the glaring weakness is numbers. Being able to compete during a ten game schedule while dressing only 16 or so players will prove to be a huge challenge. On the positive side the Rams will enjoy a hospitable schedule.

In Natchez head coach Paul Hayles is working hard to rebuild the Adams football program. After posting two consecutive seasons that only produced one win Hayles is trying to instill confidence and leadership in his squad. The biggest challenge will be improving a stat that sticks out like an Ole Miss fan in the LSU student section on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge. The Rebels yielded just over 36 points a game in 2008 and while offensively there is room for improvement not many teams can compete if that stat isn’t rectified. The Friday scrimmage in Centreville should be a boast in moral for ACCS fans. The Rebels showed some speed running the ball outside the tackles and looked decent throwing the ball in short routes. Rushing the football inside the tackles may be a challenge. What Adams can’t afford to do in 2009 is get into long 3rd down situations too often. The 2009 version of Adams football should be an improvement in the building process in Natchez.

*Projected Finish
1) Centreville
2) Central Private
3) Silliman
4) Adams Christian
5) WCCA

District 6AA
If a football district has the possibility of surprising fans it may very well be District 6AA. The only four team district in south AA consists of River Oaks and Prairie View (formerly of district 3AA), and two squads that have moved up from single-A, Cenla Christian and the Glenbrook Apaches. On the surface it appears that River Oaks and Glenbrook will be battling it out for supremacy. The downside to the 2009 schedule is that these two will meet early in week four of the season. The Cenla Christian Lions could serve up a bit of surprise to their district foes. While the Lions may not be odds on favorites to win a district title they do stand the chance of being a formidable opponent. Prairie View could possibly have a long row to hoe as the Spartans look to improve on a disappointing 2-8 record in 2008.

The River Oaks Mustangs will begin the 2009 football season with high expectations. Coming off two consecutive 7-4 seasons the Stangs are the favorites to win a district title and make some noise well into November. Head coach Robert Hannah has comprised a 122-49 mark while at the helm in Monroe and has 11 starters retuning from last season, 6 on offense and 5 on defense. Despite losing half of the starters from 2008 many underclassmen gained valuable playing time and a solid class of juniors will compliment the six seniors on this year’s squad. Lost to graduation in 2008 was quarterback/defensive back Cody Trichell and running back/linebacker Gabe Bower. Sophomore Ryan MacGregor will step in to fill the quarterback slot and direct the shotgun and fellow sophomore Aaron Rogers will be in the backfield at fullback. Defensively the Mustangs will run a 3-4 with linebackers John Rocket, Stephen Bragg, Blake Pilgreen and Harrison Holloway checking the opposing offense. River Oaks was young and small in the trenches in 2008 but after a year of growing and getting stronger they will be much improved.

Even though the Glenbrook Apaches have just moved up to AA football they will be in contention in their new district. First year head coach Ryan Porter takes over a solid program that won district 6A titles the past two seasons and won a state title in 2007. How’s this for pressure? The Apaches are 32-10 overall and 16-2 in district play the past three seasons. The week four showdown will set the tone for the remainder of the season for both squads and if more pressure needs to added to the Glenbrook Apaches it may be contained in this stat…..the Apaches have lost the last four meetings with River Oaks.

Cenla Christian is still by all accounts in the infant stage with regards to its football history but it has come a long way in a short time. Already moving up to AA football in 2009 is only further proof that the school from Pineville, Louisiana is progressing. While not being able to earn more than 3 wins in each of the last two seasons first year head coach Haden Gilder has the luxury of returning 9 starters on offense and 5 on defense. Senior quarterback Chance Terrell will lead the Lion offense with junior running backs Derrick Thomas and Dar’Tavies Green behind him and junior wide receiver Reagan Lane at wide receiver. The defense will be anchored by linebackers Andy Brossett, Greg Smith and Green. Cenla, which will have two of their three district games at home, could be the surprise team in District 6AA. Game to circle on your schedule? Week six, September 25th………Glenbrook at Cenla.

The Prairie View Spartans endured a tough 2008 campaign. The Spartans finished the season with a disappointing 2-8 overall mark and a 0-4 district record. Head coach Don King enters his second season at PVA and is faced with not only finding a replacement for running back Allen Spires, who graduated last season, but finding healthy players. King has 28 players on his 2009 squad (15 seniors) but has lost senior running back Gabe White for the season with a knee injury, lineman Murphy Tubbs is lost for the season due to a medical condition and offensive lineman Trapper Munn will not be available for another three weeks after tearing his ACL back in the spring. Who will run the double slot offense at quarterback is a virtual toss-up between Hunter Smith and Robby Jones. If the injury bug isn’t enough to worry about in Bastrop the schedule may be. Opening the season against Trinity, Porter’s Chapel and Silliman will shed light on the direction of the 2009 season for the Spartans.

*Projected Finish
1) River Oaks
2) Cenla
3) Glenbrook
4) Prairie View